This article was first published as “Marianne’s Mining Minute” in the APRA Upstate New York chapter’s newsletter, 2015.
When starting a data-mining project, we are often challenged by our management to “go do some data mining.” We can get stuck from there, unless the tool that we’ll use has already been chosen, like a screening service or a modeling vendor. Even then, making sure that we understand the question involved helps us frame how we set up the study and then what we do with the results.
For instance, “Find more prospects” sounds like a clear directive; however, the related study can take many forms. This Mining Minute considers the underlying questions related to this one request.
| Issue | Suggestion |
| Your shop does not have enough major gifts prospects | Find donors whose single gifts are the highest of your group, and model for prospects who look like them |
| Your major gifts effort is waning | Find donors whose giving is escalating in the current fiscal year, and model prospects who look like them |
| Your annual giving program is not producing prospects for your major gifts program | Look at the top of the class – prospects whose average giving during your most recent complete fiscal year, or on average over the previous three years, indicates that they are your top donors |
| Your shop hired more gift officers who need prospects | Look more closely at capacity rather than giving, or at philanthropy to other organizations, to find new prospects for in-person qualification |
| Your shop is starting a campaign | Look for your donors whose lifetime giving is highest and model prospects who look like them |
| Recent economic changes have reduced your prospect base | Look for prospects whose giving was good during poor economic times (1981-84 or 2008-09, for example). |
Note – these points below are the same as those in the table above. I reformatted the points into a table, but I’m not sure if I can duplicate the table in the blog on the site, so I also left them here for now.
- Your shop does not have enough major gifts prospects. For this scenario, find donors whose single gifts are the highest of your group, and model for prospects who look like them.
- Your major gifts effort is waning. For this scenario, find donors whose giving is escalating in the current fiscal year, and model prospects who look like them.
- Your annual giving program is not producing prospects for your major gifts program. For this scenario, look at the top of the class – prospects whose average giving during your most recent complete fiscal year, or on average over the previous three years, indicates that they are your top donors.
- Your shop hired more gift officers who need prospects. For this scenario, look more closely at capacity rather than giving, or at philanthropy to other organizations, to find new prospects for in-person qualification.
- Your shop is starting a campaign. For this scenario, look for your donors whose lifetime giving is highest and model prospects who look like them.
- Recent economic changes have reduced your prospect base. For this scenario, look for prospects whose giving was good during poor economic times (1981-84, for example).
The request, “Find more prospects for us,” can mean a variety of problem statements that are derived by understanding your business needs. Once you have established the underlying question, choose a good dependent variable for your study.