This article was first published as “Marianne’s Mining Minute” in the APRA Upstate New York chapter’s newsletter, 2015.
When we get ready for a campaign, we often employ consulting firms to sit with our closest prospects and ask them how much thy think we can raise. Next, we ask our internal organization leadership how much they need. Then we have a goal and everyone starts the scramble.
My suggestion for you as the analyst is to focus on past behaviors so you can help determine where the pledges will come from, or whether the economy will help or hinder. Here are some example exercises for these:
- Add up the lifetime giving total of every entity in your database. Is it lower than your campaign goal? If so, then your campaign goal will be reached by new donors, or by stretching your current donors in very new ways. Knowing far enough ahead if time gives you the chance to start cultivating new foundation and corporate donors as well.
- Find the top 10% of gifts of all time. Is your highest gift ever lower than the highest gift on your new campaign table? If so, your research team will be looking for new wealth that you haven’t heard of before. Note that surprise, huge gifts happen all the time, so be thoughtful about how you share this data. You are looking at how far your donors will stretch to meet the new goal.
- If you have prior campaign data, determine how many prospects were solicited to get one gift. Normally the assumption is 3 solicits (to 3 different prospects) to get one gift, but your team might be more successful or might need a larger ratio. Knowing now helps your campaign director plan.
- Model who did NOT give to your last campaign. Reducing waste of time is one of your missions, and figuring out who was not interested in your last campaign can help focus solicitations for this one.
- Find the S&P 500 levels for the years of your prior campaign, and see what happened to your giving in 2008 through 2010. Stock market pundits are proclaiming an upcoming market drop. What happens to your giving when the market crashes? Be prepared to help your management think of alternative fund-raising methods during contractions.
- Find the median household income levels for your organization’s geography during the last campaign and during 2013. Did they change significantly? Does your organization depend on a single geography? If so, knowing what’s going on in the neighborhood will help you frame mini goals.
Once you take these steps, you will find more questions to explore (did your last campaign succeed because of individual or organizational support?), and you will. And your management team will be able to assure your trustees that your organization is ready – or find out what needs to be done right now.