Chances Are—Understanding Probability of Giving and How to Improve the Odds

In fundraising, it is often difficult to calculate the probability that a given prospect will make a gift, or the likelihood that our organization will reach a specific fundraising dollar goal. The usual measures used in identifying probability don’t always work when it comes to human activity, and donative behavior is no different.

During this presentation, Dr. Gregory Duke will review several methods of identification of probability and identify which of these methods can give you a better understanding of your prospects’ likelihood to give. Dr. Duke will also use other measures of probability used in games, sports, medicine, and nature to illustrate the depth and breadth of donor possibilities. Lastly, Dr. Duke will demonstrate a technique to put all these together to create a predictive model of donor behavior over time.